作者：石川

摘要：這些先行者的杰出工作和重要貢獻塑造了如今人們對投資的認知。

引言

前不久，借著 Vertin Award 頒發(fā) 25 周年之際，CFA 協(xié)會推出了題為 Investment Luminaries and Their Insights 的特刊（對，本文的標(biāo)題參考了這個題目），回顧了 25 年來評選的獲獎?wù)邆儗ν顿Y業(yè)界的巨大貢獻。

https://www.cfainstitute.org/en/research/foundation/2021/twenty-five-years-rf-vertin-award

下圖列出了截至 2021 年的獲獎?wù)?，各個如雷貫耳。他們雖然有些來自學(xué)界，有些扎根業(yè)界，但共同點是其杰出工作和重要貢獻都塑造了人們?nèi)缃駥ν顿Y的認知和對市場的理解。

對每位獲獎?wù)撸ǔヒ压诗@獎?wù)撸?，特刊從以下幾個方面進行了介紹：

1.?主要成就；

2.?代表文獻以及對其影響最大的文獻；

3.?最重要的投資心得；

4.?對未來的看法；

5.?是否有職業(yè)遺憾。

通過前兩方面的介紹，我們能夠了解大佬們自身對投資的貢獻，而第三、第四點則傳遞出他們關(guān)于投資非常深刻的 insights，讀來頗有啟發(fā)。比如，關(guān)于重要的投資心得，我們能夠聽到：

"Alpha is like a mushroom: when exposed to the light, it withers."

以及這樣：

"In the long run, we're all dead, but make sure the short run doesn't kill you first."

還有這樣：

"Investment suc-cess requires a healthy appreciation of markets and a deep understanding of when each model will and will not work."

鑒于此，本文挑一些我最感興趣的大佬進行介紹（僅僅反映了我個人的偏好），依照獲獎順序，他們包括：William Sharpe、Andrew Lo、Clifford Asness、Campbell Harvey、Robert Shiller、Richard Grinold、Ronald Kahn、Kenneth French、Terrance Odean 以及 Maureen O’Hara。在敘述中，我只會在某些“代表文獻”環(huán)節(jié)稍加評論或補充信息。此外，“最重要的投資心得”和“對未來的看法”兩部分會保留英文、不做翻譯（相信各位已經(jīng)從上面的“劇透”中體會到大佬金句的精妙了）。

William F. Sharpe

成就：CAPM 發(fā)明者之一，Sharpe Ratio（無需多言），1990 年諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎獲得者。

代表文獻：

• Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk.?Journal of Finance?19(3), 425 – 442.

• Sharpe, W. F. (1992). Asset allocation: Management style and performance measurement.?Journal of Portfolio Management?18(2), 7 – 19.

• Sharpe, W. F. (1966). Mutual fund performance.?Journal of Business?39(1), 119 – 138.

第一篇是 CAPM，就不說了；第二篇則拉開了投資組合風(fēng)格分析的序幕，而 Sharpe 也因該文獲得了 2015 ?Wharton-Jacobs Levy Prize；第三篇關(guān)于 Sharpe Ratio 是我補充的。

對其影響最大的文獻：

• Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection.?Journal of Finance?7(1), 77 – 91.

• Arrow, K. J. (1964). The role of securities in the optimal allocation of risk-bearing.?Review of Economic Studies?31(2), 91 – 96.

最重要投資心得：The importance of diversification in investment management.

對未來的看法：Growing importance of life cycle investing.

是否有任何職業(yè)上的遺憾：沒有產(chǎn)生任何重大后果的遺憾。

Andrew W. Lo

成就：MIT 教授，提出適應(yīng)性市場假說（Adaptive Markets Hypothesis）。

代表文獻：

• Lo, A. W. and A. C. MacKinlay (1988). Stock market prices do not follow random walks: Evidence from a simple specification test.?Review of Financial Studies?1(1), 41 – 66.

• Campbell, J. Y., A. W. Lo, and A. C. MacKinlay (1997).?The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

• Lo, A. W. (2017).?Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

對其影響最大的文獻：

• Merton, R. C. (1981). 15.415 Lecture notes, Spring 1981. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management.

• Merton, R. C. (1992).?Continuous Time Finance. London, UK: Blackwell.

• Wilson, E. O. (1975).?Sociobiology: A New Synthesis. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

最重要投資心得：(1) Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. (2) In the long run, we're all dead, but make sure the short run doesn't kill you first. (3) It's amazing how much more you can accomplish if it doesn't matter who gets the credit.

對未來的看法：Markets will become far more adaptive in the future, and technological innovations will play a bigger role in creating new opportunities as well as new challenges.

是否有任何職業(yè)上的遺憾：要是能夠更早和學(xué)界和業(yè)界的同事展開合作該有多好！我從每個合作者那里學(xué)到了很多東西，我們?nèi)〉昧烁斓倪M步，這也比獨自研究要有趣得多！

Clifford S. Asness

成就：AQR 的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人。

代表文獻：這部分我建議感興趣的小伙伴參考 AQR 出版的 20 for 20，那本書里收錄了 AQR 最重要的 20 篇文章，其中不少都有 Asness 的身影。

對其影響最大的文獻：

• Fama, E. F. (1976).?Foundations of Finance. New York: Basic Books.

• Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns.?Journal of Finance?47(2), 427 – 465.

• Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1993). Common risk factors in the returns of stocks and bonds.?Journal of Financial Economics?33(1), 3 – 56.

確實對得起“Eugene Fama?過去 20 年最優(yōu)秀的學(xué)生”這個 comment。另外，Asness 在這部分還補充了“Anything by Jack Bogle”。

最重要投資心得：Finding an investment strategy you believe in for the long term turned out to be the easy part. Sticking with it through its ups and downs turned out to be the hard (but doable) part.

對未來的看法：Lower long-term returns on traditional stocks and bonds than we've grown used to. Higher long-term returns on out-of-favor simple strategies like international diversification and a value tilt.

是否有任何職業(yè)上的遺憾：如果我認為自己是對的，我從來不會回避任何分歧，而是總是全力以赴。是的，你可能會對同樣的事情感到最自豪和最后悔。有時你需要為堅持你所引以為豪的事而付出代價！

Campbell R. Harvey

成就：Duke 教授，前 AFA 主席。

代表文獻：

• Harvey, C. R. (2017). Presidential address: The scientific outlook in financial economics.?Journal of Finance?72(4), 1399 – 1440.

• Graham, J. R., C. R. Harvey, and S. Rajgopal (2005). The economic implications of corporate financial reporting.?Journal of Accounting and Economics?40(1-3), 3 – 73.

• Claude, B. E. and C. R. Harvey (2006). The strategic and tactical value of commodity futures.?Financial Analysts Journal?62(2), 69 – 97.

在 Harvey 教授的諸多研究中，我最喜歡的是他對于?p-hacking 問題的關(guān)注和發(fā)現(xiàn)，見《出色不如走運》系列，以及《Tortured Data》。

對其影響最大的文獻：

• Russell, B. (1931).?Scientific Outlook. London, UK: George Allen and Unwin Ltd.

• Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection.?Journal of Finance?7(1), 77 – 91.

• Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system.?

Markowitz (1952) 二度被提及。

最重要投資心得：The importance of economic incentives in shap-ing research.

對未來的看法：My new book, DeFi and the Future of Finance (with Ashwin Ramachandran and Joey Santoro), sketches a vision of finance in the future where the traditional banks, brokers, and insurance companies are replaced by decentralized algorithms.

是否有任何職業(yè)上的遺憾：僅是讀博的時候在 UChicago 呆了三年。時光轉(zhuǎn)瞬即逝，有太多的東西來不及學(xué)習(xí)。

Robert J. Shiller

成就：Yale 教授，前 AEA 主席，2013 諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎獲得者，行為金融學(xué)奠基人。

代表文獻：

• Shiller, R. J. (2000).?Irrational Exuberance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

• Akerlof, G. A. and R. J. Shiller (2010).?Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

• Akerlof, G. A. and R. J. Shiller (2016).?Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

• Shiller, R. J. (2019).?Narrative Economics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

• Shiller, R. J. (1981). Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends??American Economic Review?71(3), 421 – 436.

• Shiller, R. J. (1984). Stock prices and social dynamics.?Brookings Papers on Economic Activity?1984(2), 457 – 510.

• Case, K. E. and R. J. Shiller (1989). The efficiency of the market for single-family homes.?American Economic Review?79(1), 125 – 137.

Shiller 的眾多暢銷書無需多言。作為行為金融學(xué)的奠基人，Shiller (1981) 通過 variance ratio tests 指出價格的方差比未來股息折現(xiàn)值之和的方差要大得多；而 Shiller (1984) 則提出了噪聲交易者模型和套利限制，拉開了行為金融學(xué)研究的大幕。此外 Case-Shiller Housing Index 也是家喻戶曉。

對其影響最大的文獻：

• Smith, A. (1759).?The Theory of Moral Sentiments. London: George Bell and Sons.

• Wilson, E. O. (1998).?Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge. New York: Vintage Books.

• Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection.?Journal of Finance?7(1), 77 – 91.

Markowitz (1952) 第三次被提及！

最重要投資心得：As Adam Smith recounted in 1759, we can nor-mally rely on others because of a desire among normal adults for praiseworthiness, not just a desire for comforts or a desire to be praised. One must judge the character of investment advisers to see if they express this normal sentiment. As Akerlof and I wrote in Phishing for Phools, there are so many opportunities for manipulation and deception in business that we must rely on this better side of human nature.

對未來的看法：At this point in history, August 2021, I see an unusually left-skewed probability distribution of future real returns in the United States and some other countries for all three major asset classes: stocks, bonds, and real estate.

是否有任何職業(yè)上的遺憾：我希望有更多的時間享受職業(yè)生涯中的美好時刻，有更多的時間讓我與學(xué)生和其他同僚變得更加密切。我還要引用古代詩人賀拉斯的不朽名言：carpe diem（活在當(dāng)下，及時行樂）！

Richard C. Grinold

成就：業(yè)界巨作 Active Portfolio Management 作者之一，曾任Global Director of Research at Barclays Global Investors，曾任 Director of Research/President of BARRA。

代表文獻：

• Grinold, R. (1989). The fundamental law of active management.?Journal of Portfolio Management?15(3), 30 – 38.

• Grinold, R. (1994).?Alpha is volatility times IC times score.?Journal of Portfolio Management?20(4), 9 – 16.

• Grinold, R. (2007). Dynamic portfolio analysis.?Journal of Portfolio Management?34(1), 12 – 26.

• Grinold, R. C. and Ronald N. Kahn (2000).?Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Controlling Risk. New York: McGraw-Hill.

• Grinold, R. C. and Ronald N. Kahn (2019).?Advances in Active Portfolio Management: New Developments in Quantitative Investing. New York: McGraw-Hill.

無論是 Grinold (1989) 還是 Grinold (1994) 都對業(yè)界影響深遠，刊載這樣的文章本是 JPM 的初衷。再想想如今 JPM 上一篇篇的“無病呻吟”，實在令人唏噓。Grinold and Kahn (2000)?的 Active Portfolio Management（這已是第二版，第一版是 1994）更是業(yè)界人手一本。兩位在 2019 也又推出了該書的最新版。

對其影響最大的文獻：

• Sharpe, W. F. (1991). The arithmetic of active management.?Financial Analysts Journal?47(1), 7 – 9.

• Arrow, K. J. (1971).?Essays in the Theory of Risk Bearing. Chicago: Markham Publishing.

• Cox, J. C. and M. Rubinstein (1985).?Options Markets. Hoboken, NJ: Prentice Hall.

最重要投資心得：Alpha is like a mushroom: when exposed to the light, it withers.

對未來的看法：There is a lot of room to improve the service and reduce the cost of retail and institutional invest-ment management.

是否有任何職業(yè)上的遺憾：我曾預(yù)感到 2007 年量化危機發(fā)生的可能性，但我并沒有采取行動。

Ronald N. Kahn

成就：業(yè)界巨作 Active Portfolio Management 作者之一，Global head of systematic equity research at BlackRock，曾任 Director of Research of BARRA。

代表文獻：

• Kahn, R. N. and A. Rudd (1995). Does historical performance predict future performance??Financial Analysts Journal?51(6), 43 – 52.

• Kahn, R. N., M. H. Scanlan, and L. B. Siegel (2006). Five myths about fees.?Journal of Portfolio Management?32(3), 56 – 64.

• Grinold, R. C. and Ronald N. Kahn (2000). The efficiency gains of long-short investing.?Financial Analysts Journal?56(6), 40 – 53.

• Grinold, R. C. and Ronald N. Kahn (2000).?Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Controlling Risk.?New York: McGraw-Hill.

• Grinold, R. C. and Ronald N. Kahn (2019).?Advances in Active Portfolio Management: New Developments in Quantitative Investing.?New York: McGraw-Hill.

對其影響最大的文獻：

• Sharpe, W. F. (1991). The arithmetic of active management.?Financial Analysts Journal?47(1), 7 – 9.

• Grossman, S. J. and J. E. Stiglitz (1980). On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets.?American Economic Review?70(3), 393 – 408.

• McLean, R. D. and J. Pontiff (2016). Does academic research destroy stock market predictability??Journal of Finance?71(1), 5 – 32.

• Christensen, C. (1997).?The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail.?Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.

最重要投資心得：We build quantitative investment mod-els designed to work on average over time. Consistent investment success, however, requires us to navigate through unexpected and unprecedented environments. Investment suc-cess requires a healthy appreciation of markets and a deep understanding of when each model will and will not work.

對未來的看法：The current explosive growth in unstructured data and associated analytics is the biggest opportunity for active management in at least the past decade.

是否有任何職業(yè)上的遺憾：唯一后悔的是沒能更早地投入到量化投資這個令人興奮的事業(yè)當(dāng)中。

Kenneth R. French

成就：Dartmouth 教授，前 AFA 主席，實證資產(chǎn)定價的代表人物之一。

代表文獻：

• Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns.?Journal of Finance?47(2), 427 – 465.

• Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds.?Journal of Financial Economics?33(1), 3 – 56.

• Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (2015). A five-factor asset pricing model.?Journal of Financial Economics?116(1), 1 – 22.

光聽這個名字就知道不用太多介紹了。Ken French 和?Eugene Fama?合作的經(jīng)典文章自然不止這些，它們都值得反復(fù)讀。

對其影響最大的文獻：

• Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work.?Journal of Finance?25(2), 383 – 417.

• Black, F. and M. Scholes (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities.?Journal of Political Economy?81(3), 637 – 654.

• Merton, R. C. (1973). The intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model.?Econometrica?41(5), 867 – 887.

• Shleifer, A. and R. W. Vishny (1997). The limits of arbitrage.?Journal of Finance?52(1), 33 – 55.

最重要投資心得：The high volatility of realized equity returns obscures their information about expected returns. As a result, 5, 10, even 20 years of past returns may say little about the cross-section of future returns. A good strategy for inves-tors is to presume that patterns in past equity returns are just noise and to require a compel-ling model and robust evidence to reject that hypothesis.

對未來的看法：Financial markets will remain volatile, with lots of unexpected challenges and opportunities, and the turbulence will continue to provide great new topics for researchers like me.

是否有任何職業(yè)上的遺憾：我有很多遺憾，不過除我之外沒人會對它們感興趣。

Terrance Odean

成就：UC Berkeley 教授，最早研究個人投資者的行為金融學(xué)學(xué)者之一。

代表文獻：

• Odean, T. (1998). Are investors reluctant to realize their losses??Journal of Finance?53(5), 175 – 1798.

• Barber, B. M. and T. Odean (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment.?The Quarterly Journal of Economics?116(1), 261 – 292.

• Barber, B. M. and T. Odean (2008). All that glitters: The effect of attention and news on the buying behavior of individual and institutional investors.?Review of Financial Studies?21(2), 785 – 818.

Odean 和其合作者 Brad Barber 是最早使用投資者賬戶數(shù)據(jù)分析投資者行為的學(xué)者。此外，通過和其他研究者分享數(shù)據(jù)，他們極大促進了這一細分但非常重要領(lǐng)域的研究進展。

對其影響最大的文獻：

• Kahneman, D. and D. Lovallo (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking.?Management Science?39(1), 17 – 31.

• Thaler, R. (1985). Mental accounting and consumer choice.?Marketing Science?4(3), 199 – 214.

Odean 曾是 Kahneman 的學(xué)生。根據(jù)?The Undoing Project?一書中的描述，在 2002 年 10 月 9 日這個注定成為傳奇的日子，Kahneman 正坐在桌邊熱情洋溢地為?Odean 寫推薦信，而就在此時，一通來自瑞典的電話打破了深夜的寧靜。

最重要投資心得：Markets need heterogeneity.

對未來的看法：We need to change the defined contribution pension model.

是否有任何職業(yè)上的遺憾：曾花了大量精力研究如下課題，即通過面向?qū)ο蟮陌瑐€人和機構(gòu)投資者的股票市場模擬來研究行為偏差對資產(chǎn)定價的影響，然而卻未能將其發(fā)表。

Maureen O'Hara

成就：Cornell 教授，前 AFA 主席（首位女性 AFA 主席），研究市場微觀結(jié)構(gòu)的權(quán)威，提出 PIN/VPIN 模型。

代表文獻：

• O’Hara, M. (1995).?Market Microstructure Theory. Hoboken, NJ: Blackwell.

• Easley, D. and M. O’Hara (1987). Price, trade size, and information in securities markets.?Journal of Financial Economics?19(1), 69 – 90.

• Easley, D., N. M. Kiefer, and M. O’Hara (1997). One day in the life of a very common stock.?Review of Financial Studies?10(3), 805 – 835.

• Easley, D., S. Hvidkjaer, and M. O’Hara (2002). Is information risk a determinant of asset returns??Journal of Finance?57(5), 2185 – 2221.

• O’Hara, M. (2003). Presidential address: Liquidity and price discovery.?Journal of Finance?58(4), 1335 – 1354.

• Easley, D., M. M. Lopez de Prado, and M. O’Hara (2012). Flow toxicity and liquidity in a high-frequency world.?Review of Financial Studies?25(5), 1457 – 1493.

對其影響最大的文獻：

• Bagehot, W. (1971). The only game in town.?Financial Analysts Journal?27(2), 12 – 14, 22.

• Almgren, R. and N. Chriss (2000). Optimal execution of portfolio transactions.?Journal of Risk?3(2), 5 – 39.

BTW，上述第一篇中 Walter Bagehot 是一個筆名，該作者真正的名字是 Jack Treynor。

最重要投資心得：Market structures change, but they still have to provide liquidity and price discovery — and the details of market design matter.

對未來的看法：Changes in fixed income trading, new ETF structures, and the evolution of cryptocurrency microstructures present huge opportunities for investment management.

是否有任何職業(yè)上的遺憾：無。

除了上述這些大佬，最后再介紹兩位已故大佬：Jack Treynor 和 John Bolge。在專刊中，對于他們的介紹都是由其他人主筆的，我從中挑選了“成就”、“代表文獻”以及“別人能從他的貢獻中學(xué)到什么”三部分。

Jack L. Treynor

成就：CAPM 發(fā)明者之一，Fischer Black?的引路人（沒錯，這是我的私心）。

代表文獻：

• Treynor, J. L. (1961). Market value, time, and risk. Unpublished manuscript. Rough Draft dated 8/8/61, #95-209.

• Treynor, J. L. (1962). Toward a theory of market value of risky assets. Unpublished manuscript. Rough Draft dated by Treynor to the fall of 1962. A final version was published in 1999, in?Asset Pricing and Portfolio Performance.?R. A. Korajczyk (editor), London: Risk Books, 15 – 22.

• Treynor, J. L. and F. Black (1973). How to use security analysis to improve portfolio selection.?Journal of Business?46(1), 66?–?68.
  

關(guān)于 Treynor 和 CAPM 的故事，見《CAPM 的一小段歷史》。Fischer Black 贊其為第一個發(fā)明 CAPM 的人。在上世紀(jì) 60 到 70 年代，Treynor 和 Black 合作并共同發(fā)表了很多論文，它們?yōu)榱炕顿Y管理提供了最初的框架和必要的模塊。

別人能從他的貢獻中學(xué)到：Incorporating risk into discount rates, return expectations, performance measurement, along with implications for portfolio management, market making, and corporate and pension investment decision making.

John C. Bogle

成就：Founder of Vanguard，指數(shù)基金之父。

代表文獻：

• Bogle, J. C. (2000).?Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.

• Bogle, J. C. (2007).?The Little Book of Common-Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.

Vanguard！指數(shù)基金！這些標(biāo)簽足以讓人銘記 John Bogle。

別人能從他的貢獻中學(xué)到：Jack was an ardent proponent of long-term thinking, patient investment style, and prudent fund design. He believed chasing market returns with high turnover investment approaches wipes out most or all of the gains an investor would otherwise earn. He practiced what he preached with the Vanguard family of mutual funds focusing on no-load, low-cost, low-turn-over portfolios — many of which are passively managed.

結(jié)語

除了本文節(jié)選出來的很少的一部分，在特刊中，每位獲獎?wù)哌€對自己多年的投資研究和實踐以及在這個過程中體會到的深刻感悟進行了總結(jié)，感興趣的小伙伴請閱讀特刊。通過進一步閱讀，我們也不難看出他們之間的共同點：

1.?獲獎?wù)邆兎浅Ｖt遜，在“遺憾”環(huán)節(jié)，我們聽到的最多的是“我希望有時間能夠?qū)W習(xí)更多的東西”；

2.?他們都指出模型都有自身的限制，依賴的假設(shè)可能很危險，而人的行為充滿著意外；

3.?對于在業(yè)界獲得成功的獲獎?wù)邅碚f，他們都清醒的認識到投資中的恐懼和貪婪，并清楚地知道他們在哪些方面具備優(yōu)勢，而在哪些方面應(yīng)該繞道而行。

毫無疑問，這些投資領(lǐng)袖所表現(xiàn)出來的堅持、毅力以及永不滿足的好奇心塑造了我們今天所看到的投資實踐，而也正是這些素質(zhì)讓我們?yōu)榻窈笠粋€又一個新的突破做好準(zhǔn)備。

BTW，如果你問我最喜歡的名言是哪一句，答案就是 Ken French 說的：

"The high volatility of realized equity returns obscures their information about expected returns. As a result, 5, 10, even 20 years of past returns may say little about the cross-section of future returns."

More to come…

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